Open Range | May 25th, 2025 | Hard-Asset Haven — Tariffs & Treasuries Ignite a Bitcoin Bid

Last week delivered a rare role-reversal. While equities and long-dated Treasuries buckled under fresh 50 %-tariff threats and another $3.8 trillion spending bill, hard assets caught a bid. Bitcoin sprinted to within a hair of $112k and gold logged its best five-day stretch of the year, reminding investors that the 21-million-cap asset can play a genuine risk-off role when deficits look unfixable. Add record-high Japanese bond yields, a boom in corporate BTC treasuries, and Texas green-lighting state-level reserves, and the signal is hard to miss: capital is seeking harder ground.

Bitcoin & Macro Update

Bitcoin rallied over the past week almost touching the $112k mark, despite the weak performance across legacy markets as the asset seemingly finally acted as a risk-off "hedge" against reckless fiscal spending and persistent monetary supply growth. Gold benefited from the same deficit— and tariff— driven risk-off benefits, closing up 5.3%. 

Wall Street finally exhaled after the post-tariff rally: the S&P 500 and Dow both closed down 2.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite gave back 4.4%. The pullback followed President Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on EU goods—and even previously untouchable products from corporate behemoths like iPhones—which reignited trade-war nerves and reintroduced some volatility into markets.

After a brief post-downgrade rally, treasuries cheapened again: the 10-year note pushed back up to roughly 4.52% at Friday’s close, its highest finish since early April. Meanwhile, the 30-year note finished above 5.03%, as the spread between the 10— and 30— year note widened to levels not seen since September 2021 on unfixable deficit concerns. Supply issuance worries did the heavy lifting—while the House passed a $3.8 trillion “mega-bill” with only token spending cuts.

Even longtime deficit hawks shifted tone last week: rather than insisting Washington slash spending, they now argue the U.S. must grow its way out of the gap between outlays and receipts. Elon Musk and Scott Bessent echoed the view, saying the economy has to expand faster than the debt—achievable only through rising asset values and/or sustained high inflation, both of which would sap demand for long-term Treasuries.

This was a notable narrative shift from the previously held ability to significantly cut spending in Washington.

Internationally, Japan’s bond market faced significant turbulence as yields on 20-, 30-, and 40-year Japanese Government Bonds hit record highs, with the 20-year yield reaching 2.555% after a weak auction, driven by the Bank of Japan’s quantitative tightening and a high debt-to-GDP ratio of ~250%. Traders blamed a shrinking Bank of Japan bid, heavy fiscal issuance and dealers unwilling to warehouse duration, raising fears of a self-feeding sell-off that could force the BOJ back into the market. Strategists warn that a decisive break higher would threaten the yen-carry trade and trigger repatriation flows that spill into U.S. and European bond markets. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described Japan’s fiscal situation as "worse than Greece."

Institutional Update

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon—long one of Bitcoin’s fiercest critics—told CNBC the bank will give clients direct access to spot BTC purchases (custody to be handled externally), marking a remarkable volte-face that removes yet another institutional gating factor.

Roxom, a company building a bitcoin denominated exchange and 24/7 media network, raised almost $8 million from Draper Associates, Borderless Capital, Ego Death Capital, and Kingsway Capital for their bitcoin denominated exchange, and also raised $10 million in private funding for Roxom TV. Roxom is primarily looking to let users view and trade global equities, ETFs, commodities, bonds, forex, and crypto pairs denominated in BTC or sats rather than fiat. The company disclosed its entire treasury is in bitcoin, a promising trend which is more widespread than many imagine, but still incredibly early relative to the end state.

Zeus Wallet shipped Cashu e-cash integration on 22 May, letting Lightning users spin up bearer-token mini-wallets in seconds—an existential nod to Chaumian privacy.

Corporates also continue to buy bitcoin. Strategy fired off another buy volley—7,390 BTC on May 19—lifting its grand total to more than 576K BTC. Fuel for the binge? A fresh $2.1 billion at-the-market shelf for its STRF preferreds, effectively strapping an IV drip of capital to Saylor’s shopping cart.

Amid the challenges of the Japanese bond market, Tokyo-listed Metaplanet continued its balance-sheet metamorphosis. On 19 May the firm revealed it had scooped up 1,004 BTC for about $104 million, lifting its stack to 7,800 BTC—worth roughly $810 million and almost quadruple year-to-date. Management financed the purchase with a mix of zero-coupon yen bonds and operating cash, and signaled fresh issuance capacity is in place for more. Since adopting its bitcoin-standard strategy last year, Metaplanet’s market capitalization has grown more than 300x. 

Semler Scientific slipped 455 BTC into its med-tech till, while France’s The Blockchain Group forked over €21 million for 227 coins. Up north, Swedish health-tech upstart H100 AB became the kingdom’s first public BTC treasurer, then immediately inked a 10 million-krona convertible line to double down. DigiAsia plans to raise $100 million for a reserve splash, and London-listed Vinanz made its debut with 16.9 BTC—a starter kit worth $1.75 million as microcaps continue to bet on bitcoin.

KindlyMD shareholders blessed a reverse merger with Nakamoto Holdings, David Bailey’s $710 million war chest aimed squarely at bitcoin accumulation.

Regulatory Update

 On 21 May the House passed SB 21—the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Investment Act—by 101-42; Governor Abbott is expected to sign it within days. The law allows the state comptroller to hold Bitcoin (and any digital asset with a market cap above $500 billion) as part of treasury reserves. New Hampshire and Arizona enacted similar measures earlier this year, but Texas—the world’s eighth-largest economy if treated as a country—puts real geopolitical weight behind the idea of sub-sovereign Bitcoin reserves.

The Senate inched forward on the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan stablecoin bill that would impose strict reserve, disclosure, and consumer-protection rules. Backers frame the measure as a way to funnel offshore dollar liquidity back into regulated U.S. instruments—potentially boosting Treasury demand and, by extension, supporting Bitcoin on

Early Riders Media

 AI Kills SaaS, Bitcoin Saves Treasuries – The Next Playbook for Founders

Cam Doody—Brickyard founder and the most frequent guest in Final Settlement history—joins the crew just after the U.S. suffers another credit-rating downgrade and 30-year Treasury yields rip past 5%. Liam lays out how bigger deficits, rising real yields and an ever-multipolar world are cornering Washington into more borrowing and more debasement. The hosts ask: if “inside money” (government credit) is wobbling, does the smart capital inevitably rotate into hard assets—chiefly, Bitcoin?

Cam recounts a jaw-dropping meeting with a senior Fed economist who’s banking on an “AI productivity miracle” to bail out growth—apparently unaware that radical productivity = radical deflation, which makes today’s $36 trillion debt mountain effectively unpayable. The moment sparks a deeper warning: policymakers don’t yet grasp how fast AI will shred service-sector pricing power.

Voice bots for dentists are cool for the consumer, not for the investor—20 identical teams race each other to the $15k price floor. Cam explains why most AI startups are “uninvestable” unless they own a freakishly sticky moat: overlooked customers, regulatory walls, or distribution quirks nobody else can copy. Speed and product alone won’t cut it when GPT-quality tools and exponential technology improvements are table stakes.

What if a fund parks just 10% of commitments in BTC and lets a 25% CAGR do the heavy lifting? Cam argues that even a mediocre manager suddenly looks top-quartile, and a great one becomes elite, while LPs get earlier liquidity and real downside cover. Cue a lively back-and-forth on how Bitcoin-denominated funds (à la Early Riders) might eat traditional VC.

 A grisly Wall Street Journal piece on “severed-finger” ransom jobs reminds everyone why self-custody at scale is a non-starter. Michael and Brian champion Multi-Institution Custody (MIC)—native multi-sig spread across independent firms—as the only way to keep Bitcoin sovereign and safe. With nine of eleven ETFs parking coins at Coinbase, the race is on to decentralize custody before history rhymes with gold.

The hosts link fresh Middle-East energy pacts, tariff maneuvers and a possible stablecoin bill into one thesis: America will keep printing, shove Treasuries into stablecoin reserves, and try to win the AI arms race by locking down cheap electrons. Citizens, meanwhile, will need a harder personal balance sheet—again pointing straight at Bitcoin.

Every bull run plants regret in the nonbeliever who “almost bought.” Cam urges founders, lawyers, and Frito-Lay route drivers alike to carve out the time to understand Bitcoin before the next parabolic leg—because once you see it, you can’t unsee it. If you’re curious how AI, energy, and a 21-million-cap asset collide to rewrite capital markets, hit play and go down the rabbit hole with us.