Bitcoin ended roughly flat on the week around $104.5k. The S&P 500 closed at 5,958.38, adding 5.3% on the week and logging a fifth straight daily gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 42,654.74, up 3.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 7.2% to 19,211.10—its best weekly stretch since January, primarily driven by a 90 day pause of the US—China reciprocal tariffs.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.44%, roughly +7 bps from last Friday, while the dollar index dipped 0.2%, giving Bitcoin a mild tail-wind.
Safe-haven flows cooled: gold futures slipped 3.7% to $3,202/oz as real yields edged higher. Energy, by contrast, firmed on trade-truce optimism—WTI crude settled at $62.49/bbl, up 2.4% on the week.
April U.S. PPI surprised to the downside at -0.5% m/m—the sharpest drop in five years—as companies absorbed tariff costs and margins tightened. Retail sales barely rose (+0.1% for April) after a strong March, suggesting consumers are becoming cautious amid higher import prices. Factory output contracted (-0.4% in April) for the first time in six months, weighed down by tariffs and slowing demand.
The mix let the Fed keep its target range at 4.25–4.50% for a second straight meeting; Chair Powell warned of “persistent supply shocks,” but reiterated the 2% inflation goal—for now. Treasury markets breathed: the 10-year yield slipped back to 4.45% Friday after flirting with 4.50% (around a three month high) mid-week.
The dollar index gave back early gains, down 0.2 % on the week—a mild tail-wind for Bitcoin.
A five-percent rally in the S&P alongside falling gold and a softer dollar underscores a “Goldilocks” macro tone: growth is slowing just enough to take the edge off inflation—but not enough to spook equity bulls. With real yields stable and the policy rate on hold, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding, finite asset stays contained. Add a 7 % Nasdaq pop and fresh small-cap treasury adopters, and Bitcoin retains both its uncorrelated-asset selling point and a growing real-economy usage case.
Moody’s stripped the United States of its last remaining triple-A sovereign rating, lowering it to Aa1 from Aaa and citing the government’s “persistent failure” to rein in widening fiscal deficits and rapidly rising interest costs. The agency warned that debt affordability now lags peers and that the trajectory of federal borrowing no longer merits the top tier, leaving the U.S. outside the elite AAA club at all three major rating houses.
The same day on Capitol Hill, President Trump’s flagship “One Big Beautiful Bill” stalled in the House Budget Committee after fiscal-hawk Republicans balked at its $3-plus trillion 10-year cost and scant concrete spending cuts, even as leadership insisted the package could squeeze through reconciliation without breaching a $4.5 trillion deficit cap; the episode reinforces Moody’s downgrade thesis that Washington still lacks a credible plan to curb debt growth, despite efforts of DOGE earlier this year.
President Trump meanwhile visited the Middle East to secure further investment into the US from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as persuade the countries to invest in the US rather than China in this increasingly multi-polar world. President Trump left with $600B in commitments from Saudi Arabia, and an additional $200B commitment from the UAE, driving toward the $1.4T total over the next 10 years.
Despite the strong investment commitments, there were no known formal commitments for purchases of additional US treasuries, a likely goal of the trip from President Trump's perspective amid rising treasury yields.
Institutional Update
Microstrategy disclosed on May 12 that it acquired an additional 13,390 BTC for ~$1.34 billion, at an average price of ~$99,856 per coin, continuing their relentless buying.
In the Middle East, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala sovereign wealth fund added significantly to its holdings of IBIT, upping its stake to 8.7 million shares (~$409 million) as of Q1.
The State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) – an early adopter among U.S. public pensions – disclosed that it exited its entire position (around 6 million shares of IBIT) in Q1, likely locking in profits from 2024’s big rally.
On the capital-markets front, Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital completed its long-planned U.S. migration on May 16, ringing the bell on the Nasdaq under ticker GLXY—a milestone that underscores how far regulators have shifted from 2022’s blanket crypto hostility toward welcoming full-service digital-asset firms onto premier exchanges.
Fast-food chain Steak ’n Shake flipped the switch on Lightning payments at every U.S. counter, putting instant BTC settlement in front of 100 million annual diners.
Flash2.0 launched a three-minute, no-custodian merchant gateway aimed at Shopify and WooCommerce’s 95 % e-commerce share.
A flurry of microcaps and pre-profitable companies announced plans to acquire bitcoin treasuries over the past week, following the success of Strategy.
Basel Medical Group, a tiny Singapore-listed orthopedics chain worth roughly $40 million, stunned its own shareholders by entering exclusive negotiations to acquire $1 billion in bitcoin via a share-swap with crypto investors – a transaction that, if it closes, would balloon the company’s book value by 25-fold and instantly turn a niche healthcare outfit into a BTC holding vehicle.
New-York–listed DDC Enterprise (DayDayCook) revealed a phased plan to scoop up 100 BTC immediately, 500 BTC within six months, and 5,000 BTC over three years as part of its shareholder-approved “Bitcoin Reserve Initiative,” framing the move as the logical complement to double-digit revenue growth in its Asian food brands.
In Brazil, fintech Méliuz secured decisive shareholder approval to convert itself into the country’s first Bitcoin-treasury company and promptly bought 274 BTC at an average $103.6K, lifting its stack to 320 BTC.
London-quoted Coinsilium followed with a £1.25 million raise to seed its own treasury vehicle and opened an additional retail tranche, signaling that smaller investors also want a slice of a public BTC proxy. Bitcoin Magazine
Heritage Distilling began accepting bitcoin for bourbon online and, adopted a formal policy to hold all received coins on the balance sheet, arguing that product margins provide a built-in volatility buffer.
Meanwhile, the micro-cap frenzy rolled on: New York–based, China-linked GD Culture Group (market cap ≈ $26 million) announced it will raise up to $300 million from an unnamed offshore investor to buy bitcoin and President Trump’s $TRUMP meme coin, a bid to copycat MicroStrategy’s treasury model—only with a Solana-native political token in the mix.
Regulatory Update
It was a quiet week on the regulatory front, as congress continued to focus on the GENIUS Act, with Democrats staunchly opposed to the perception of the Trump family profiting off of 'crypto.'
All eyes are on J.D. Vance's and David Sacks' speeches at the Bitcoin Conference later this month to get an update on the view of bitcoin from the highest offices, which have been quiet in recent weeks.
Ukraine is reportedly in the final stages for its own strategic Bitcoin Reserve, albeit the process seems like far from a done deal.
Brian Cubellis, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson open with the weekend’s headline: a surprise U.S.–China tariff détente that trims Trump’s saber-rattling 125% threat down to a more negotiable 10–30% band. Liam argues that spiking 10-year Treasury yields “broke the will” of the White House and forced everyone back to the table; Michael notes how global liquidity rushed in “before things break.” Bitcoin barely flinched—grinding from $104 k toward $106 k—while equities ripped and gold sagged, underscoring Bitcoin’s unique ability to act as both risk-on and risk-off asset at once.
That price stability sets the stage for the team’s bigger concern: a new wave of Bitcoin-treasury companies that mimic MicroStrategy’s playbook but add layers of leverage. The latest, Nakamoto Corp., is gunning for a reported $710 million raise with a cap table that reads like a crypto-native who’s-who. “These tickers are the new ICOs,” Brian warns, pointing out that investors chasing high-beta wrappers will almost certainly under-perform spot during sharp draw-downs. Michael calls the trend “leverage on leverage,” arguing it preys on newcomers who still fear self-custody yet want exposure before the cycle tops.
Consolidation is hitting market infrastructure, too. The trio dissect Coinbase’s $2.9 billion bid for offshore options powerhouse Deribit—a deal Michael says was “built into the business plan from day one” for exchanges that nurtured liquidity abroad while waiting for a friendlier U.S. regime. If approved, it drags perpetual swaps on-shore and signals a broader M&A spree as TradFi looks to bolt mature crypto rails onto existing desks.
Policy currents remain fickle. In Washington, stable-coin and market-structure bills are stalling, which could stall non-Bitcoin crypto inflows; draft language even tries to bring Tether under U.S. jurisdiction “regardless of registration location.” At the same time, the OCC quietly clarified that banks may custody and execute digital-asset trades, opening the door for “Chase-level on-ramps” once they snap up specialist firms. On the state front, New Hampshire passed a bill allowing up to 10 % of its reserves in Bitcoin, while Texas flirts with a similar plan.
The macro chatter isn’t just American. A fresh BIS report links surging Bitcoin and stable-coin volumes to tight capital controls and high remittance costs; Spain’s new €3k cash-withdrawal limit is a real-time case study of why “outside money” matters. Michael flatly states the lesson: proxy tickers, ETFs, and bank custodial products are still inside money—subject to seizure and rehypothecation—whereas self-held Bitcoin remains the only censorship-resistant reserve.
Early Riders’ own portfolio shows where that thesis leads. Onramp just launched Onramp Trade, an entry-level account with free trading through September and a roadmap to Multi-Institution Custody, letting newcomers graduate from exchange balances to insurance-wrapped cold storage without ever playing hot-potato with keys.
From tariff chess to ticker mania, bank charters to BIS papers, the hosts keep returning to a single refrain: investors can chase leverage, wrappers, and regulatory arbitrage, but “the people’s money” remains the asset you can hold yourself. As Brian sums up, “Everyone wants Bitcoin exposure—the question is whether they’ll settle for inside-money imitations or earn the conviction to own the real thing.”
