Kraken’s IPO, Tether’s Power Play, & Why Bitcoin Still Wins
Timestamps:
00:00 - Latest in Bitcoin price action
01:46 - Kraken’s $20B IPO & Citadel’s investment
10:17 - Tether’s strategic investment in Ledn & Bitcoin-only lending
17:53 - VC money chases perp DEX infrastructure
21:52 - Maker/Sky’s OBEX incubator & the stablecoin yield gray zone
24:46 - Slash: stablecoin-first banking and demand for better money movement
26:01 - Human risk management, AI scams & Doppel’s $70M raise
32:48 - Cardano chain split exploit & “decentralization theater”
42:13 - Rethinking the poverty line, broken stats & the debasement trade
50:12 - Square/Block’s SMB Bitcoin tools & the future of merchant adoption
Despite the recent volatility, institutional demand for digital asset infrastructure remained robust as major investment firms such as Citadel compete for a handful of digital asset infrastructure businesses. Both Kraken’s IPO announcement and Tether’s investment in Ledn, highlight the substantial institutional appetite for scaled and investable platforms in the space as institutions move aggressively to secure exposure. The key infrastructure layers around Bitcoin are still fragmented and under developed as major institutions look to provide capital to proven players in digital asset lending, trading, and custody.
Kraken’s Confidential S-1 and Citadel’s Strategic Positioning
A major development this week was Kraken’s confidential filing of its S-1 alongside an $800M raise at a $20B valuation, with significant participation from Citadel.
Scarcity of institutional-grade infrastructure: Coinbase is already public, Binance is offshore and inaccessible to U.S. institutions, and Gemini’s position has weakened. Kraken is one of the few remaining exchanges with sufficient history, brand credibility, and operational maturity.
Attractive fundamentals: Kraken reports nearly $60B in client assets and delivered ~$200M in adjusted EBITDA last quarter after meaningful operational improvements.
Citadel’s motivation: Similar to its relationship with Robinhood (where it acts as the primary market maker), Citadel’s interest is driven by order flow visibility, derivatives market data, and informational advantages. Equity upside is secondary to the strategic access.
Tether’s Investment in Ledn: Consolidation in Bitcoin-Native Lending
Tether’s strategic investment in Ledn, one of the longest-standing North American Bitcoin lending platforms, marks another meaningful consolidation event. IPO disclosures will surface device, software, and data-collection risks that institutions must underwrite.
Information advantage: Tether gains insight into borrower behavior, liquidation events, and loan demand, which is critical for understanding market leverage conditions.
Distribution alignment: Ledn’s client base, particularly in Latin America and Canada, expands natural pathways for USDT/USAT usage.
Operational leverage: Rather than building a regulated lending business internally, which requires licensing, 24/7 risk management, and jurisdiction-specific compliance, Tether benefits from backing an entity already structurally embedded in the lending market.
Doppel’s $70M Raise & the Accelerating Social Engineering Threat
Doppel raised $70M (3× valuation increase) to address impersonation, credential theft, and deepfake-driven attacks, which is one of the fastest-growing risks in digital asset ownership.
Most losses in digital assets occur not from protocol failures, but from users being socially engineered into surrendering credentials.
Major exchanges often disclaim responsibility when a user authorizes a transfer, even if it is under fraudulent guidance.
AI tools are making impersonation dramatically easier, lowering the barrier to initiate an attack.
The Cardano Warning: Chain Splitting and Decentralization Theater
A notable incident this week involved an AI-assisted exploit that caused Cardano’s validator set to split into incompatible forks.
A $20B+ asset was destabilized by a low-cost action from a non-sophisticated attacker.
The incident contradicts claims of strong decentralization and resilience.
Like other non-Bitcoin chains, Cardano exhibited reliance on human coordination, not protocol-enforced immutability.
Quote of the Week
“We’re going to make higher highs and higher lows. That’s what’s happening. Don’t get shaken out.” -Brian Cubellis
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