Inside the SpaceX IPO And Why Bitcoin Is the Value Trade

Written By Early Riders

Timestamps:

00:00 - The State of Digital Assets

01:13 - Upcoming IPOs and Market Dynamics

05:54 - Contrasting Views on Investment Strategies

08:19 - Long-Term Perspectives on Bitcoin

14:11 - Speculation vs. Saving in Investments

18:32 - Government Involvement and Market Bubbles

25:22 - Zcash Inflation Bug and Crypto Vulnerabilities

31:12 - Tokenization of Deposits and Future of Banking

34:12 - Understanding the Future of Investment and Money

35:56 - The Role of Traditional Finance in Digital Assets

37:11 - Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin Lending and ETF Strategy

40:54 - Market Timing and ETF Launches

42:48 - The Evolution of Wealth Management and Asset Preservation

44:40 - Stablecoins and 24/7 Trading in Crypto Markets

49:05 - US Sanctions and the Impact on Crypto Markets

52:59 - Tether's Gold-Backed Innovations

55:19 - The Future of Agentic Payments and Prediction Markets

On this week's Final Settlement, the team unpacked SpaceX's $1.77 trillion IPO, the Zcash inflation bug discovered by an AI model, Wall Street's coordinated tokenization push, and Polymarket's contested resolution on Strategy's Bitcoin sale.

The SpaceX IPO Could Become Bitcoin's Best Catalyst

The dominant narrative ahead of SpaceX's Nasdaq debut was that looming mega-IPOs were pulling capital away from Bitcoin. Instead, IPO liquidity minted among long-tenured SpaceX insiders is more likely to flow toward Bitcoin than away from it.

  • SpaceX is pricing its June 12 Nasdaq debut at $135 per share implying a $1.77 trillion valuation, offering a $75 billion float representing barely 4% of shares outstanding.

  • Morningstar put fair value at less than half the IPO price, flagging the speculative premium built into the opening trade.

  • Bitcoin at current levels was characterized as the stronger risk-adjusted bet versus IPO-priced AI names on a one-to-three-year horizon.

AI Code Auditing Is Now Altcoin's Greatest Threat

A four-year-old counterfeiting bug sat undetected in Zcash's Orchard shielded pool until an AI model found it. This was a preview of how frontier models will increasingly expose vulnerabilities in these systems.

  • Security researcher Taylor Hornby used Anthropic's Claude Opus model to identify a counterfeiting vulnerability in Zcash's Orchard circuit that had existed since May 2022.

  • The bug allowed unlimited ZEC minting inside the shielded pool, where supply is unverifiable by design, making any exploitation operationally undetectable.

  • ZEC dropped more than 40% following the public disclosure as holders weighed whether counterfeit coins had entered circulation.

  • A small group of developers coordinated an emergency hard fork and patch within days, illustrating the centralized decision-making embedded in most altcoin protocols.

Wall Street Is Racing to Tokenize the Dollar

SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are lining up some of the largest IPOs in history at a moment when frontier model economics are starting to flatten.

  • Adjusted for inflation, the SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI IPOs could collectively raise as much as all roughly 300 internet and TMT IPOs of 2000 combined, per Michael Burry.

  • Strip out data center capital expenditure and US GDP growth looks roughly flat, concentrating all economic momentum inside AI infrastructure.

  • GPT-5 and Anthropic's latest release landed weeks apart with incremental rather than exponential gains, suggesting frontier model improvements are leveling off.

Prediction Markets Are Centralizing the Risks They Were Built to Eliminate

Polymarket's resolution of the Strategy Bitcoin sale contract exposed a recurring flaw in decentralized prediction markets: when disputes arise, resolution power concentrates in a small group of token holders with direct financial stakes in the outcome.

  • Strategy disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 at an average price of $77,135, its first Bitcoin sale since 2022.

  • Polymarket resolved the contract as No after retroactively shifting resolution criteria from the date of the actual sale to the date of the public announcement.

  • A Wall Street Journal investigation found more than half of UMA oracle votes in disputed markets came from just ten wallets, with roughly one in five disputes involving voters with a direct financial stake.

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Inside Saylor's Bitcoin Sale & Jamie Dimon's War On Coinbase