2025 Recap + 2026 Predictions: Real Signals, Fake Noise, & BTC’s Path to $250K
Timestamps:
00:00 - Year-End Reflections and Top Deals
12:45 - Market Signals and ETF Flows
25:13 - Stablecoins and Digital Asset Integration
28:19 - Noise in the Market: Digital Asset Treasuries and Cycle Theory
35:26 - Reevaluating Bitcoin Cycles
36:01 - The Quantum Debate
37:09 - Predictions for Bitcoin's Future
41:39 - Market Dynamics and Predictions
53:45 - Innovative Banking Solutions for 2026
59:55 - The Future of Multi-Institution Custody
2025 marked a significant year for bitcoin’s transition from a speculative asset to a durable infrastructure. Sovereign capital moved from observation to participation, banks crossed regulatory thresholds into custody and payments, and stablecoins quietly normalized digital dollars across the global financial system. At the same time, familiar narratives, four-year cycles, quantum panic, and digital-asset treasury companies, generated far more noise than signal. Looking ahead to 2026, the dominant forces shaping outcomes will not be price patterns or ideology, but distribution, custody architecture, geopolitical incentives, and broader developments in digital infrastructure.
The Top Deals of 2025
The most important deals of 2025 were about owning infrastructure, distribution, and settlement rails. Sovereigns, payment networks, and capital-market incumbents all made explicit bets that digital assets are no longer optional.
MGX Invests ~$2B in Binance: Abu Dhabi–backed MGX’s investment into Binance was the most consequential deal of the year. A sovereign wealth fund taking a strategic stake in the world’s largest exchange due to Binance’s global trading dominance, CZ’s relocation to the GCC, and the UAE’s energy and regulatory posture converged into a deliberate, long-term bet.
Mastercard’s $2.1B Rumored Acquisition of ZeroHash: Mastercard’s rumored acquisition of ZeroHash, a digital asset infrastructure provider, marked a shift from experimentation to execution. The move signaled that wallets, stablecoins, and crypto orchestration are becoming core capabilities.
Coinbase Acquires Deribit for ~$3B: Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit marked a decisive step in consolidating global crypto derivatives under regulated, institution-friendly distribution. Deribit’s dominance in options and perpetuals gave Coinbase immediate scale in sophisticated trading products that had historically lived offshore and outside U.S. regulatory comfort.
Citadel Invests $200M in Kraken: Citadel’s investment into Kraken reflected market-makers’ growing desire to own liquidity venues. Citadel invested ahead of Kraken’s planned IPO implying a valuation of nearly $20B.
Block Activates Bitcoin at the Point of Sale: While not an M&A transaction, Block’s activation of bitcoin payments at Square terminals closed a multi-year loop between merchant acceptance and bitcoin infrastructure.
The Top Signals of 2025
The clearest signals of 2025 came not from price, but from who was buying, building, and integrating bitcoin into the ecosystem. These developments pointed to bitcoin’s growing maturity as a macro asset embedded in sovereign strategy, institutional portfolios, and industrial infrastructure.
Harvard endowment acquisition of Bitcoin and Gold: Harvard allocating almost $500m to bitcoin, and over $100m to gold show a focus on commodities during a period of potential inflation.
ETF inflows despite weak price performance: Bitcoin ETFs ranked among the top inflow products even during a flat-to-down year, signaling unlocked demand from allocators who had waited years for compliant access as institutions continue to face pressures from clients to increase allocations.
Energy and AI reframed Bitcoin mining: The convergence of AI infrastructure and mining forced markets to understand what actually secures bitcoin: physical assets, energy investment, and grid participation.
Banks moving through stablecoins first: Regulatory clarity around stablecoins opened the door for banks to normalize digital money, setting up future bitcoin custody, lending, and integration.
The Top Noise of 2025
Much of the loudest narratives in 2025 distracted from the structural forces reshaping the market. These narratives generated engagement, but offered little durable insight into bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Digital asset treasury companies: Many corporates offering “bitcoin-like exposure” leveraged capital-markets optics with no long term sustainable plan. When something sounds too good to be true it usually is.
Four-year cycle theory: Anchoring to historical halving-based price patterns ignored how sovereigns, banks, and ETFs actually allocate capital, which is causing many participants to sell based on outdated information.
Quantum fear-mongering: Long-known theoretical risks resurfaced around the potential for quantum computing to hack the bitcoin network, and were amplified by misaligned incentives.
Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE): The lack of buy in across the government and inability to cut non discretionary expenditures like social security, medicare, medicaid, interest expenses, and defense made the well intentioned plan doomed from the start.
Our Predictions for 2026
The groundwork has been laid in 2025 for sovereigns, established banks, and capital allocators to get into bitcoin and digital assets in a larger way.
The U.S. Government Acquires Bitcoin: The U.S. will pursue a budget-neutral pathway to acquire a strategic bitcoin reserve.
The Triples: Bitcoin price triples, gold price triples, and M&A activity in the digital asset space triples in 2026. M&A activity which sat at $8B in 2025 is set to grow significantly as bitcoin continues to institutionalize.
Banks Shift From Partnerships to Acquisitions: Banks will move from B2B partnerships to more acquisitions of exchanges, custodians, and stablecoin infrastructure, prioritizing control over speed. Liam predicted that there could be a single acquisition of an exchange by a bank at a valuation over $24B.
Custody Failures Replace Volatility as Primary Risk: The dominant market shocks will come from custody failures, theft, and operational breakdowns.
A High-Profile Corporate Bitcoin Loss Occurs: A poorly prepared treasury or corporate holder will lose bitcoin due to inadequate custody or governance, accelerating demand for institutional controls and safer custody technology.
Physical and Digital Attacks Continue to Scale: As bitcoin monetizes, the ROI on coercion and cyber-attack rises, forcing a re-rating of personal security and operational discipline.
Four-Year Cycle Thinking Fully Breaks: Institutional and sovereign flows will further invalidate halving-based models, making cycle-anchored strategies increasingly ineffective, as the increasing institutional scale puts pressure on the older four-year cycle model.
Businesses We Want to See Built in 2026
The next wave of winners will be businesses offering financial services that make sound money convenient, usable, safe, and easy to understand.
Local Stablecoin Banks: Community-level institutions offering stablecoin checking and bitcoin savings to young, mobile populations with low CAC and high retention. College campuses offer great targets.
Integrated Asset Platforms: Regulated platforms combining bitcoin, gold, and equities under one institutional interface.
Neutral Multi-Institution Key Agents: Jurisdictionally neutral signing entities designed to participate in multi-institution custody quorums without competitive conflicts and previously existing business models.
Quote of the Week
“I think the US government buys Bitcoin in a budget neutral way in 2026.” — Brian Cubellis
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