Early Riders | Open Range Weekly | 01.04.26
Bitcoin traded up nearly 4% on the week, starting the New Year at a market capitalization of $1.82T.
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Michael, Brian, and Liam break down the key deals, signals, and themes of 2025, as well as their key predictions for the major developments of 2026, on last week's podcast.
You can find all our episodes on our podcast website as well as listen on YouTube, Apple, and Spotify.
Industry & Institutional Updates
Metaplanet added another $450M of Bitcoin in Q4, reinforcing its treasury strategy of using BTC exposure as a core value driver.
Dealmakers shared a record $8.6B of digital asset M&A volumes in 2025, primarily citing an improved regulatory environment, which has accelerated consolidation across exchanges, infrastructure, and payments.
Crypto executives outlined that macro conditions, regulatory clarity, and further infrastructure build-out are expected to define the performance of crypto in 2026.
Bitwise filed for 11 ETFs tracking crypto-linked tokens, with plans of investing up to 60% in the underlying token, and the rest in exchange-traded products and derivatives.
Grayscale argued that regulation, not speculative fears of quantum computing, will be the driving force for crypto markets and capital flows in 2026.
The Federal Reserve signaled internal division on its 2026 outlook, as the number of rate cuts expected in 2026 remain under debate. In 2025, the Fed made three interest rate cuts, with only as many as two expected in 2026.
Sberbank issued Russia’s first bitcoin-backed loan to a Bitcoin miner, marking a notable step in institutional credit formation using digital assets as collateral. Russian banks continue to explore decentralized finance instruments as gradual legalization of digital assets continues in Russia.
BlackRock distributed $100M from treasury yields out of its tokenized fund BUIDL, highlighting growing institutional comfort with on-chain yield and tokenized real-world assets.
Regulatory Updates
South Korean lawmakers stalled progress on a national stablecoin framework, as lawmakers continue to debate which entities should receive permission to issue the assets.
Coinbase CEO (Brian Armstrong) warned that continued lobbying from banks is stalling progress on the GENIUS Act from lawmakers, framing stablecoin policy as a critical red line for U.S. crypto competitiveness.
Russian lawmakers advanced legislation taking aim at unregistered crypto miners introducing criminal penalties.
Weekly Spotlight: 2025 Recap & 2026 Predictions
The Early Riders team put out a shortlist recap of the most notable deals, signals, and drivers of 2025, as well as high-level predictions and expectations for 2026 below.
Early Riders 2025 Recap:
Infrastructure won the year with the most consequential deals circulating around exchanges, custody, payments, and settlement solutions.
Sovereigns entered the stack as Abu Dhabi–backed MGX invested $2B in Binance marking the signal that digital asset infrastructure is now a strategic institutional priority.
Block’s activation of bitcoin at the point of sale closed the loop between merchant acceptance and underlying Bitcoin rails.
Coinbase acquired Deribit for $3B accelerating the migration of global crypto derivatives into regulated and institution-friendly avenues.
Citadel invested $200M in Kraken, reflecting market makers’ push to control venues, not just trade on them, as Kraken gears up for a nearly $20B IPO.
Harvard’s allocations of $500M and $100M to bitcoin and gold respectively, further signaled the shift of growing institutional demand amid inflation and fiscal uncertainty.
Bitcoin ETFs ranked among top inflow products despite weak price performance this year, validating continued demand and strengthening long-term performance expectations.
Banks started with stablecoins as regulatory clarity incentivized banks to normalize digital money first, laying the groundwork for custody, lending, and broader Bitcoin integration going forward.
Treasury-style “bitcoin exposure” narratives companies are leveraging public optics with no long-term sustainable value prop.
Additional key noise this year stemmed from talks of the four-year cycle theory breaking as well as significant quantum fear-mongering noise around potential blockchain hacks.
Early Riders 2026 Predictions & Expectations:
The U.S. acquires Bitcoin: A budget-neutral pathway will emerge for the U.S. to begin allocating to the strategic bitcoin reserve.
The Triples: Bitcoin's price triples, gold's price triples, and digital-asset M&A volumes triple as institutionalization accelerates.
Banks forced to buy the stack: Large banks will move from partnerships to outright acquisitions of bitcoin-native exchanges, custodians, and digital asset infrastructure.
Custody becomes the primary risk: Market shocks will shift from volatility to custody failures, theft, and security risks.
A large corporate custody failure occurs: A high-profile bitcoin loss will occur forcing enterprises to adopt institutional-grade custody, governance and infrastructure solutions.
Security risks scale with monetization: The continued monetization and growth of bitcoin will make the ROI of coercion, cyber-attacks, and other illicit activities to rise, forcing a re-rating of custody security and discipline.
Four-year cycle thinking breaks: Institutional and sovereign flows will continue to invalidate halving-based models.
Chart of the Week
Stablecoin adoption has grown significantly in 2025, as stablecoins now account for nearly 1.4% of the total U.S. dollar supply.
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